Tag: Rebecca Long-Bailey
-
Labour leadership model update
The Labour Party leadership nomination process is now at a mature stage – 485 local Labour parties have made nominations and so there are probably less than 100 left to go. The pattern of those nominations is pretty clear – a big lead for Keir Starmer (currently backed by 280 local parties) with Rebecca Long-Bailey…
-
Updated Labour leadership model
I have updated the model in several ways – to make it a slightly better analogue of the real world and to follow the developments in the contest itself. No beating about the bush – the predictions for the outcome of the first round of balloting (as I say here please don’t take this seriously)…
-
Another go at modelling the Labour leadership election
I started doing this for fun and that’s still my motivation – so please do not take this seriously and even if I do slip into using the word “prediction”, above all – this is not a prediction. Anyway my aim is to model the potential outcome of the first round of the ballot of…
-
Mathematically modelling the overall Labour result
The Zipf model I outlined here looks to be reasonably robust – though maybe the coefficient needs to drop to somewhere between 1.25 and 1.29 – but can we use this result to draw any conclusions on the actual result itself? That’s what I am going to try to do here – but be warned…
-
Mathematically modelling the Labour leadership nomination race
No politics here – just some maths. But if we use a Zipf distribution (see here for more about that) we get a pretty good fit for the three front runners – Keir Starmer, who currently has 43 nominations from constituency labour parties, Rebecca Long-Bailey who has 17 and Lisa Nandy who has 10 –…
cartesian product ... stuff about computing mostly 