Tag: Labour
-
Labour leadership model update
The Labour Party leadership nomination process is now at a mature stage – 485 local Labour parties have made nominations and so there are probably less than 100 left to go. The pattern of those nominations is pretty clear – a big lead for Keir Starmer (currently backed by 280 local parties) with Rebecca Long-Bailey…
-
Updated Labour leadership model
I have updated the model in several ways – to make it a slightly better analogue of the real world and to follow the developments in the contest itself. No beating about the bush – the predictions for the outcome of the first round of balloting (as I say here please don’t take this seriously)…
-
Another go at modelling the Labour leadership election
I started doing this for fun and that’s still my motivation – so please do not take this seriously and even if I do slip into using the word “prediction”, above all – this is not a prediction. Anyway my aim is to model the potential outcome of the first round of the ballot of…
-
Mathematically modelling the overall Labour result
The Zipf model I outlined here looks to be reasonably robust – though maybe the coefficient needs to drop to somewhere between 1.25 and 1.29 – but can we use this result to draw any conclusions on the actual result itself? That’s what I am going to try to do here – but be warned…
-
Mathematically modelling the Labour leadership nomination race
No politics here – just some maths. But if we use a Zipf distribution (see here for more about that) we get a pretty good fit for the three front runners – Keir Starmer, who currently has 43 nominations from constituency labour parties, Rebecca Long-Bailey who has 17 and Lisa Nandy who has 10 –…
-
A bit more on Universal Credit and “Agile”
I think I need to give a little bit more background on the politics of the decision by the DWP to trumpet its use of “agile” methods and how, bluntly, the department has misused to potential of agile to give it cover in its huge gamble with public money and the living standards of millions…
-
Getting away with it
One thing that working towards a PhD has taught me is that textbooks are of low value in academia. Of course great textbooks are essential works, but in the end a textbook is not a peer reviewed publication: it’s what you and the publisher think you can get away with. And, yes, some text books…
-
Success of #downgradedChancellor suggests Parliament has a big TV audience
Ed Miliband, Labour leader, used his televised reply, on the floor of the House of Commons, to the Chancellor of the Exchequer‘s Budget to announce the “#downgradedChancellor” hastag and within an hour it was trending worldwide. Seems more people watch parliament, at least on Budget day, than many give credit for. I predict there will…
-
Here we go again
I used to have a blog. It was meant to be about “politics and free software” (not the politics of free software) but ended up being mainly about politics. I wrote the last entry on that in January 2008 and subsequently took it off line (the content is still on my server at home and…
cartesian product ... stuff about computing mostly 