Month: February 2020

Ten Great Ideas About Chance: A Review
Unfortunately Ten Great Ideas About Chance is a disappointment. The central idea of the book is to look at ten key mathematicalphilosophical ideas in probability and, using the history of the idea, explain what they are about and why they matter. It’s not that the book doesn’t have some very interesting material, but it fails […]

Bayes and the billiard balls: and what’s the probability the Sun rises tomorrow?
This is again from Ten Great Ideas About Chance. Some years ago I wrote about measuring how fair, or otherwise, a dime coin might be, applying Bayes’s theorem, which requires us to start with a view on the fairness of the coin (the socalled ‘prior’). Then, as is typical in many such example cases, I […]

What’s the evidence your numbers are faked?
Currently reading: Ten Great Ideas About Chance. It can be a bit of a frustrating read – a lot of the chapters about gambling and judgement appear to be poorly explained to me – especially if you’ve ever actually placed a bet on anything (I am far from a regular gambler – I’m not sure […]

Labour leadership model update
The Labour Party leadership nomination process is now at a mature stage – 485 local Labour parties have made nominations and so there are probably less than 100 left to go. The pattern of those nominations is pretty clear – a big lead for Keir Starmer (currently backed by 280 local parties) with Rebecca LongBailey […]

Updated Labour leadership model
I have updated the model in several ways – to make it a slightly better analogue of the real world and to follow the developments in the contest itself. No beating about the bush – the predictions for the outcome of the first round of balloting (as I say here please don’t take this seriously) […]